Weekly Market Commentary
Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news.
Wading Through Financial Stability: An Action Plan
March 20, 2023 | LPL Research
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year...
Stress in Banking System | Latest Equity Asset Allocation Views
March 13, 2023 | LPL Research
Last week did not play out how we anticipated. Coming into the week, it was all about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and the February jobs...
No Landing. No Sense: Suggesting an Economy Makes “No Landing” Makes No Sense
March 6, 2023 | LPL Research
Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and ...
What’s Changed in the Markets in 2023 and What it Could Mean
February 27, 2023 | LPL Research
While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations...
What’s Changed in the Markets in 2023 and What it Could Mean
February 21, 2023 | LPL Research
Markets have adjusted to several changes this year. The pace at which inflation has cooled is slowing. The market has started to believe the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “higher for longer” message. The bar for earnings has been lowered...
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
February 13, 2023 | LPL Research
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question, with all due respect to William Shakespeare. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest. That honor goes to what’s priced in...
Brightening Outlook for International Equities: Have the Tides Turned
February 6, 2023 | LPL Research
Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022. Some was the increased popularity of value investing as mega-cap U.S. technology stocks became less in favor...
WILL JANUARY HIT THE TRIFECTA?
January 30, 2023 | LPL Research
The script has been flipped in 2023. Last year’s underperformers have turned into outperformers this year, driving the S&P 500 Index up over 5% this month. The pace and composition of the rally have left many investors skeptical over its sustainability...
A FEISTY BULL-BEAR DEBATE: WEIGHING THE PROS AND CONS
January 23, 2023 | LPL Research
The latest episode of the debate between stock market bulls and bears has gotten more interesting. For every valid point from one side, there’s an equally compelling...
Q4 EARNINGS PREVIEW: PESSIMISM MAY BE OVERDONE
January 17, 2023 | LPL Research
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. Lackluster
global growth, ongoing profit margin pressures from inflation...
Market, Stocks, and Bonds Lessons Learned from 2022
January 9, 2023 | LPL Research
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, LPL Research has a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
2023 MARKET OUTLOOK
January 3, 2023 | LPL Research
The global economy will likely slow from the upper-2% range in 2022 down to the mid-1% range in 2023 [Figure 1]. Much depends on China's growth path now that it has largely abandoned its overzealous zero-COVID-19 policy...
HISTORIC YEAR FOR CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY AND RATE HIKES
December 19, 2022 | LPL Research
The Federal Reserve (Fed) wrapped up its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year last week, where it hiked short-term interest rates for the seventh time in as many meetings, taking the fed funds rate to 4.5% (upper bound).
DECEMBER DOWN BUT NOT OUT
December 12, 2022 | LPL Research
Despite the S&P 500 Index starting December with five consecutive days of losses, we think December is down but not out. December often starts slow but historically has been a strong month. There are also some potentially supportive seasonal patterns ahead...
RESILIENT CONSUMERS HAVE NOT SAVED RETAIL STOCKS
December 5, 2022 | LPL Research
Economic and corporate data support the initial strong reads on holiday retail sales despite the macro headwinds, reinforcing the idea that today’s consumer is in a better position than usual at this point in the business cycle...