May 2026

AI-Fueled Growth Meets Market Volatility. Some of you may be surprised by the stock market’s recent strength, particularly with oil prices over $100 a barrel. To us, the amount of artificial intelligence (AI) investment is even more surprising. But that’s not all there is to this story.

Economy: Modest Growth but Well Supported. Economic growth is moderating, with first quarter GDP coming in at 2% as consumer spending cooled. LPL Research has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.0%, down from 2.7% pre-Iran conflict. Business investment, government spending, and AI are supporting economic activity, helping to offset softer consumption growth. Strong corporate profits and a resilient labor market give the Federal Reserve room for patience, leaving 2026 rate cuts in doubt. Inflation will continue to take its cues from the oil markets, underscoring the importance of monitoring developments in the Middle East closely.

Stocks: AI Gives Bull Market Legs, but Bouts of Volatility Likely. We believe the bull market has further to run on continued optimism surrounding AI. Stocks enjoyed a strong April with double-digit gains for most broad indexes, but strong earnings have kept the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio reasonable near 21. If AI spending comes through and is viewed as productive, this bull market should still have legs. That said, expect volatility from Middle East headlines and oil prices to continue in the near term.

Earnings: A Key Anchor. A key bright spot for stocks, first quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is tracking to over 20%, supported by technology investment, productivity gains from AI, and fiscal stimulus. Capital investment plans for 2026 by AI hyperscalers have increased by more than $200 billion this year to over $725 billion — offering significant earnings for companies building out AI capabilities, particularly in semiconductors. While geopolitical risks and energy price swings can distract markets in the short term, earnings strength remains critical to sustaining stock prices over time.

Bonds: Income Generator. In fixed income, starting yields remain attractive relative to history. As such, we continue to emphasize income generation over price appreciation. As policy rates eventually move lower (unlikely until after oil prices start coming down), returns on cash may fade, increasing the appeal of high‑quality bonds with intermediate maturities as portfolio stabilizers and income generators.

Bottom line, we continue to see a constructive investment environment, albeit one that will likely require patience and discipline over the balance of 2026. Bouts of volatility remain likely, but fundamentals, particularly earnings, continue to underpin our confidence long term. Investors are encouraged to maintain long‑term allocations, stay diversified, and use periodic pullbacks as opportunities.

As always, please reach out to us with questions.

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of May 5, 2026.
All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Tracking #1101431| #1101434

April 2026

As the Iran conflict enters its second month, geopolitical stress continues to test investors. Historical stock market performance during geopolitical conflicts helps remind us that stocks are far more resilient than the moment may suggest. As we assess today’s environment and the uncertainties surrounding ongoing military operations in Iran, we focus on two past conflicts we believe are instructive, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

The two periods offer contrasts. In 1990, at the start of the first Gulf War, the U.S. economy was slipping into recession. Corporate profits were flattening, inflation remained elevated, and consumer confidence was fragile. With little fundamental support in place, markets initially struggled. Yet even then, equities began recovering well before the conflict formally ended, anticipating eventual stabilization.

By contrast, in 2003, when the Iraq War began, the economy had already healed from the dotcom bust and the 2001–2002 corporate accounting scandals. Corporate earnings were rebounding, monetary policy was supportive, and valuations were reasonable. With stronger fundamentals in place, markets responded positively after hostilities started and began a five-year bull market that didn’t peak until October 2007.

Today, we see elements of both periods — but importantly, we do not see evidence that the long‑term economic or earnings outlook has been meaningfully impaired. First and foremost, a demilitarized Iranian regime would ultimately contribute to a safer world and more stable markets, mitigating a key geopolitical risk that has persisted for nearly five decades. From a market perspective, nothing about the current conflict undermines our confidence in the long‑term attractiveness of equities. For stocks, the more positive 2003 path seems more likely than 1990.

Beyond the human element, we can all acknowledge that this environment is uncomfortable. The damage the Iranian regime has inflicted on energy and other infrastructure in the region is unsettling. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no easy off ramp. Yet history shows that markets often recover well before geopolitical tensions fully resolved and frequently with surprising force once clarity begins to emerge. As stocks hinted at with big gains on the last day of March, that outcome remains possible in our view.

While no one can predict how long this period of volatility will last, the underlying economic foundation and corporate America’s earnings power remain strong. Attractive opportunities are likely to emerge from this downdraft once U.S. military objectives are achieved and tankers can move freely through the strait.

We believe it important to keep portfolio risk at or near long-term targets and remain well diversified. For long-term focused investors, we see opportunities to take advantage of weakness.

As always, please reach out to our team with any questions.

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of March 31, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

RES-0006896-0326 | For Public Use | Tracking #1086920 | #1087053 (Exp. 04/2027)

March 2026

Rising tensions in the Middle East have added new uncertainty to global markets. Events like these often lead to short‑term volatility—especially in energy prices—and remind us how quickly geopolitical developments can influence the financial landscape.

At Shoreline Wealth, our team is closely monitoring these events and evaluating any potential implications for client portfolios. In this month’s update, we’ll take a closer look at the conflict, its early market impacts, and what disciplined investors should keep in mind during periods of heightened global tension.

Joint airstrikes against Iran targeting high-value military installations to hinder Iran’s nuclear development efforts and degrade its military capabilities while removing the Iranian regime from power are ongoing. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marked a significant escalation in the conflict. Iran retaliated by launching a broad series of missile attacks directed at Israel and multiple Gulf states, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The repercussions have been felt across the region as global energy flows were disrupted and oil and gas prices surged. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves — is at a standstill. A sustained spike in energy prices would likely require evidence of a more prolonged disruption, something not evident at this time and not our base case.

Despite the severity of these events and the uncertain path forward, a historical stock market perspective is helpful. History shows that markets often recover quickly once conditions stabilize, typically within days or a few weeks, as long as the U.S. economy doesn’t slide into recession. Geopolitical shocks can elevate volatility, as this one has, but they do not typically derail longer‑term market trends unless the economic impact becomes both deep and persistent.

Our broader stock market outlook for 2026 remains constructive. A growing economy, bolstered by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and artificial intelligence (AI) investment, provides a supportive backdrop for stocks despite concerns about AI disruption. Earnings growth, particularly in technology, remains quite strong, powering S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 14% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve remains likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, when inflation pressures are expected to ease. Despite the initial sell-off in Treasuries after the Iran strikes, interest rates remain at comfortable levels for the economy. In February, mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, helping to support the important housing market. These dynamics suggest that any weakness related to geopolitical volatility may present a buying opportunity.

Our message for investors is to remain patient and be diversified. Staying the course during volatile and uncertain geopolitical environments can be difficult, but the stock market’s track record suggests it’s the right approach. Don’t let short‑term uncertainty obscure long‑term opportunities.

Last and certainly not least, we wish our service men and women in harm’s way a safe return home. Let’s all pray the world will be a safer place on the other side of this conflict.

As always, please reach out to our team with any questions.

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of March 3, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value
 

RES-0006769-0226 | For Public Use | Tracking #1073402 | #1073612 (Exp. 03/2027)

February 2026

Other than the historic volatility in gold and silver prices, the biggest news for markets in January may have been the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. We anticipate a Warsh-led Fed will be able to steer the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toward two rate cuts later this year, with help from easing inflation pressure. Remember, the Chair just gets one vote on the 12-member FOMC, so the health of the labor market and the path of inflation will be critical. 

Warsh’s track record of flexibility on interest rate policy, his credibility with Fed officials, and prior advocacy for central bank independence should help ease concerns about the President’s influence. However, his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet, now over $6.6 trillion, and his emphasis on fiscal responsibility could complicate the Treasury’s efforts to refinance government debt at lower rates. This dynamic will be important to watch because the U.S. government’s fiscal situation is not on a sustainable path.

One of the reasons Warsh is likely to push for lower rates, despite still-elevated inflation, is productivity gains from AI can help the economy grow faster with less inflation. Recent data shows U.S. nonfarm business productivity rose 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Technology and more efficient processes enable firms to produce more with fewer hours worked, a key reason economic growth will likely help push stocks higher.

AI investment is also helping drive a strong fourth quarter earnings season. S&P 500 companies are on track to deliver a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. While this is driven mostly by the tech sector’s 30% earnings increase, keep in mind industrials are tracking toward 25% earnings growth. Several leading companies have cited tangible benefits of AI during earnings season, including Bank of America, Meta, and Costco. Strong earnings can help solidify the floor under stock prices, while cooling inflation and stable interest rates can help raise the ceiling by supporting higher valuations.

Looking ahead, the backdrop for stocks remains favorable. Massive AI investment is driving gains in productivity and earnings. Consumers will get tax refunds associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act starting this month. Positive stock market performance in January often bodes well for annual returns, though past performance does not guarantee future results. And increased participation in this bull market is encouraging — the average stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past three months*.

AI scrutiny, deficit spending, and geopolitics remain key risks. New Fed Chairs are often tested by markets, and midterm election years tend to be more volatile. Don’t let any volatility that may come along shake your confidence. It will not shake ours. We believe volatility creates opportunity. Stay invested and diversified.

As always, please reach out to our team with questions.

Featured Content:

Important Information

* The average stock is the equal weight version of the S&P 500. Return for the equal weighted S&P 500 over the past three months (since 11/03/25) is 6.7% vs. 2.1% for the regular S&P 500 over that period.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of February 4, 2026.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Tracking #1058651 | #1058652 (Exp. 02/2027)

January 2026

Stocks had another strong year in 2025 as most market benchmarks enjoyed their third straight year of double-digit returns. Last year’s performance was particularly rewarding given how much stocks overcame — notably tariffs. Tariffs weren’t the only obstacle, as market concentration, high valuations, deficit spending, and inflation occupied spots on investors’ lists of worries. Reflecting on 2025, here are some noteworthy takeaways:

• In our view, bears are usually wrong. The stock market had plenty of skeptics when 2025 began, just like 2023 and 2024. While stocks have down years, on average, they go up about three times as often as they fall (based on S&P 500 Index returns since 1980), though past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Stocks usually follow earnings. S&P 500 companies in aggregate grew earnings at a double-digit pace in 2025 and have the potential do so again in 2026, bolstering stock performance. It’s no coincidence the technology sector produced some of the strongest earnings growth and best returns last year.
• Policy matters; politics, less so. The volatility that almost ended the bull market last spring was driven mostly by tariffs, which directly impact corporate profitability. Once tariffs were reduced or removed, the major averages quickly reclaimed prior highs. If politics don’t hurt corporate profits, e.g., in a government shutdown, we believe they are unlikely to hurt the stock market.
• Big market drawdowns and attractive annual returns can coexist. The S&P 500 dropped to 19% below its record high at its 2025 low on April 8 but ended more than 16% higher for the year. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% annual gain (excluding dividends) and a 14% maximum intra-year drawdown. This perspective and a long-term focus can help ensure volatility doesn’t knock you off course as you pursue long-term goals.
• Lower interest rates are good for both stocks and bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained more than 7% in 2025 on the back of lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its target rate and inflation moderated. Those lower rates also helped stocks maintain lofty valuations at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) near 22 based on the consensus S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for the next 12 months. Valuations are not good predictors of performance year to year.

Looking ahead to 2026, stocks face some of the same challenges they did in 2025. While tariffs may play a smaller role, policy uncertainty around midterm elections could contribute to more volatility in the year ahead. With fiscal stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and huge artificial intelligence investments coming, another year of gains appears likely.

As we wrap up the first week of January, we want to wish you a Happy New Year and thank you for your continued partnership.
2026 is full of opportunities, and we’re here to help you navigate them with confidence. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or to discuss your financial goals for the year ahead.

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of January 7, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Tracking #843899 | #843901

December 2025

Stock investors were rewarded for staying the course in November as broad stock market averages recovered from a mid-month dip to end near record highs. The comeback extended the S&P 500 Index’s streak of monthly gains to seven – something to be thankful for alongside the arrival of the holiday season. Increasing confidence in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts was a key driver, but renewed confidence in the economic and corporate profit outlook and artificial intelligence (AI) investment certainly played a role, in our view.

As December begins, markets will continue to take directional cues from the job market, which will be key to preserving consumer spending during the important holiday shopping season. We expect slower but still positive job growth as government data delayed by the recent shutdown fills in. The approximately $130 billion in annualized incremental consumer tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will start flowing in February 2026, not far off. The White House has also pivoted toward tackling affordability challenges. The K-shaped economy — where upper-income folks enjoy rising asset values while those living paycheck-to-paycheck struggle — remains a challenge. Policies to help lift the bottom half of the “K”, perhaps through the housing market, may help shore up the overall consumer spending picture.

As U.S. consumers hang in there, corporate America is thriving. The just-completed third quarter earnings season underscored companies’ ability to clear a higher bar. More than 82% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus earnings targets, the highest rate since at least 2009. Earnings grew 13%, extending the streak of double-digit increases to four quarters. Profit margins unexpectedly expanded despite increased tariff costs, supported by disciplined cost management and productivity gains. And management teams generally signaled confidence in demand, causing analysts to lift earnings estimates for 2026. Corporate America’s resilience reinforces the case for maintaining equity exposure in line with long-term targets.

As we prepare to turn the page to 2026, several factors warrant close attention. The Fed’s policy trajectory remains central, with inflation trends and the labor market guiding the central bank. While a rate cut is now fully anticipated in December, the number of cuts beyond that will hinge on incoming data. Other factors to consider as investor attention shifts to the year ahead include increasing scrutiny around AI investment, midterm elections, the U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical threats.

Against this backdrop, investors may benefit from prioritizing diversification and risk mitigation in 2026. Bouts of volatility are likely and may present attractive entry points for disciplined investors. Opportunities exist in sectors aligned with growth drivers such as AI, fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and changes in regulatory policy, but investors will want to maintain flexibility. We believe corrections are a price we must pay to pursue compelling returns over the long term.

As always, please reach out to our team with any questions

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of December 3, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Tracking #831847 | #831850

November 2025

The last week of October delivered a flurry of impactful headlines across earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics — each shaping the investment landscape as we head into year-end. Here are some key takeaways: 

• Corporate America continues to impress. We’re now more than 70% through third quarter earnings season and an impressive 83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings expectations, putting index companies collectively on track to deliver a fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The surge in capital expenditures from Big Tech has been a standout theme. The top seven technology companies are now expected to invest more than $500 billion next year to build out AI infrastructure, underscoring the intensity of the AI arms race. While investors have generally welcomed this investment, the cool reception to Meta’s (META) results highlights growing scrutiny.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced uncertainty about the future path of rates. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was “far from a foregone conclusion.” As anticipated, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, the Committee remains divided, and the tone was less dovish than markets hoped, sending Treasury yields higher. Labor market commentary was also revealing, painting a picture of a “no hire, no fire” dynamic as companies mostly held headcounts steady amid economic uncertainty. From our perspective, labor market risks make the case for continued rate cuts into 2026 despite lingering upside risks to inflation.
• U.S.-China trade truce reduced the risk of escalation. President Trump and President Xi reached a one-year trade truce at the APEC summit in South Korea last week. Key elements include reduced U.S. tariffs, resumed China soybean purchases, and a pause on China’s rare-earth export controls. The effective overall tariff burden is around 12%, well below most policy strategists’ expectations in the mid-teens. Easing trade tensions and reduced tariffs have provided a tailwind for corporate earnings.

These significant developments were generally well received by financial markets — enough to clinch the sixth straight positive month for the S&P 500 Index and the seventh straight for the Nasdaq Composite. While past performance does not guarantee future results, November through April has historically been the best six-month period of the year for stocks, although some gains may have been pulled forward and concentrated market leadership introduces some fragility to a bull market that hasn’t experienced a 5% pullback in nearly six months.

In closing, surprising earnings upside, easing trade tensions, and a favorable seasonal setup are balanced against supportive but less predictable monetary policy. We favor a selective tactical approach into year-end.

As always, please reach out to our team with any questions.

Featured Content:

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of November 5, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

Tracking #819847 | #819848